How Long Blu-ray Will Last

Blu-ray has won the HD format war, but is the war really over?
Apple has come out with the Apple TV that lets you download HD movies over your broadband internet connection. Many analysts and tech geeks predict that Blu-ray won't last as long as DVD. I'll have to disagree. Sure Apple TV will get popular, but I think Blu-ray will still survive along with Blu-ray.
I think this because you're always going to have the non-tech sabby family that doesn't even know what wifi is let alone set up a thing that connects to your TV and downloads TV shows and movies directly to your TV. There will always be people like that, and thinking that it's complicated to set up and do will want to go to the easier route, Blu-ray.
OK, let me rephrase. Maybe Blu-ray won't last as long as DVD but I think it will get very close. Bottomline: Apple TV is a great idea, but again, there's tons of people that haven't even heard of it or know what it is. Blu-ray is good for less tech sabby people and that will help Blu-ray thrive.